Tennis Preview – January 8, 2012

The first champion of 2012 was crowned today with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeating French compatriot Gael Monfils in straight sets in Doha. The next two champions will be decided tomorrow with two compelling match-ups in the Chennai and Brisbane finals.

CHENNAI FINALS – MILOS RAONIC VS. JANKO TIPSAREVIC

In an extremely exciting match in Chennai, India, world #31 and rising star Milos Raonic of Canada takes on world #9 and one of the hottest players on tour, Janko Tipsarevic.  Both players have been in great form in this tournament, with neither having dropped a set.  Raonic has faced stiffer competition beating a top 10 player in Nicolas Almagro in the semifinals and also defeating two other players in the top 100.  Meanwhile, Tipsarevic has cruised to the finals without defeating a single player in the top 100.

These players have never faced each other, but it is a contrast of styles.  Raonic is known for having one of the best serves on tour, but also has a monstrous forehand and is fairly capable at the net.  His backhand stroke is average at best – it is an inconsistent stroke but can be quite heavy when it is on.  Raonic’s real bugaboo is his movement which is less than stellar.  He has worked hard at this aspect of his game, but he is still a big lumbering man with limited mobility.

Tipsarevic, on the other hand, is a great all court player who does not have as big weapons as Raonic, but does not have any glaring holes either.  His serve is above average, his movement is fairly good and he is quite capable off both of his wings.  Tipsarevic’s biggest weapons may be his second serve and his second serve return.  He wins 55% of 2nd serve points and 54% of 2nd serve return points – a good recipe for a winning player.

This matchup will prove to be tight, but I think that Tipsarevic’s 2nd serve and 2nd serve return will prove to be crucial.  Raonic is capable of winning this match, but he will have to have a first serve percentage in the 70s and hope to win a tiebreaker or two.  If he is not in tip top form, expect Tipsarevic to break a couple of times and prevail in the match.

PREDICTION: TIPSAREVIC 6-7 6-4 6-3

BRISBANE FINALS – ANDY MURRAY VS. ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV

In the other Sunday final in Brisbane, Australia, two top fifteen players square off with Scottish world #4 Andy Murray taking on Ukrainian world #15 Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Dolgopolov has a breakthrough year last year until tiring at the end of the season.  Dolgopolov is likely very satisfied with his performance in Brisbane to date as he has defeated two top 30 players in Radek Stepanek and Gilles Simon and has also reached his first career final on hard courts.

This is a tough match-up for Dolgopolov as he has a similar game to Murray’s but does nothing better than him – with the possible exception of a slightly bigger first serve.   These two have faced off twice before – once in 2006 on clay which Murray won in straight sets and much more recently in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open last year where Murray won in 4 sets.

What stands out most from their Australian Open match last year was Murray’s success against the Dolgopolov 2nd serve.  The Ukranian only managed to win 34% of his 2nd serve points and Murray was able to dictate play when Dolgopolov did not get his first ball in.

I expect that Murray’s potent returns and capable service game will once again be the difference in the Brisbane finals.  Look for Murray to handle Dolgopolov in two competitive sets.

PREDICTION: MURRAY 7-5 6-4

2012
01/07
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Tennis Preview – January 7, 2012

Well tennis fans, it’s good to be back in the swing of things.  The 2012 season is kicking off and there are a number of top players in action in three different venues including the ATP Newcomer of the Year and six top 20 players.  Our first champion of the year will also be crowned tomorrow with the Doha finals scheduled.

Here are your previews for what should be a great day of action.

BASELINE RALLY’S MATCH OF THE DAY:

GAEL MONFLIS VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA – DOHA FINALS

Two of the top three Frenchmen face off in what should be a thrilling match in Doha tomorrow as world #6 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga takes on world #16 Gael Monfils.  Expect a competitive match between these two countrymen as both have been in good form recently – Monfils won Stockholm at the end of 2011 while Tsonga reached the finals of the last two tournaments of the 2011 season.

Monfils and Tsonga have met three times before – all in the semifinals of tournaments – with Tsonga holding a 2-1 edge.  Their last meeting was in Montpelier in 2010 with Monfils winning in three close sets.  A common trend in the matches between these two is Tsonga’s effectiveness with his 2nd serve.  He has managed to win over 60 percent of 2nd serve points in each of his meetings with Monfils.

Expect this trend to continue with Tsonga putting a lot of pressure on Monfils with his serve and booming forehand.  I think Monfils will come out strong but Tsonga will weather the storm and ultimately prevail to win the first tournament in 2012.

PREDICTION: TSONGA 6-7 6-3 6-2

CHENNAI SEMIFINAL PREVIEW

MILOS RAONIC VS. NICOLAS ALMAGRO

In the first semifinal of the day in Chennai, India, ATP Newcomer of the Year and Canadian #1 Milos Raonic takes on world #10 Nicolas Almagro of Spain.  Expect some fireworks in this one as Raonic usually dictates play with his feast or famine huge first serve and explosive forehand.

There is no history between these two men, as this is their first career meeting.  Raonic has certainly been playing better this tournament, dominating Romanian Victor Hanescu and then besting top Israeli Dudi Sela without dropping a set.  Meanwhile, Almagro faced three match points against Japanese qualifier Yuichi Sugita before rallying to win in three tough sets to reach the semifinals.

Although Almagro is the higher ranked player, this match-up certainly favors Raonic.  For one, the young Canadian has a good career record on hard courts, reaching both of his career finals on the surface.  Almagro, on the other hand, has never reached a final on the hard courts among his 14 career finals and has a losing record while playing on the fast courts.

Raonic’s serve will ultimately prove to be too much for Almagro who is not known as a great returner.  The Canadian will try to pick his spots on Almagro’s serve and will likely break once per set to reach his first final since last February.

PREDICTION: RAONIC 7-5 6-4

JANKO TIPSAREVIC VS. GO SOEDA

Japanese journeyman Go Soeda has had a career week in Chennai.  After getting through qualifying, he has defeated a top 40 player in Ivan Dodig and a top 20 player in Stanislas Wawrinka to reach his first career semifinal.  Soeda, however, has never defeated a top 10 player and he will have to do so to get to his first career final as he takes on world #9 Janko Tipsarevic.

Tipsarevic – the tournament’s #1 seed – should thank the tournament organizers at Chennai for his remarkably easy draw.  If he defeats Soeda, he will make the tournament finals without defeating a player ranked in the top 115.

Although Soeda has played great this week, including really taking control of his match with Wawrinka, he does not have the weapons to compete with a great all-around player like Tipsarevic.

Look for the Serb to continue the great run that he had at the end of 2011 by reaching his first final in his first tournament of 2012.

PREDICTION: TIPSAREVIC 6-3 6-3

BRISBANE SEMIFINAL PREVIEW

ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV VS. GILLES SIMON

In the day’s only battle between top 15 players, world #15 and Ukranian #1 Alexandr Dolgopolov takes on world #12 from France Gilles Simon in Brisbane, Australia.  This should be a grudge match between two talented players who track down a lot of balls, play a beautiful brand of tennis and can also hit with power when the time is right.

Dolgopolov and Simon have met once before in 2011 in Sydney, with Simon taking the match in two sets.  Simon’s 1st serve was particularly effective that match as he won 81% of his points off his first ball.  That usually is not a strength of Simon’s game as his 70% first serve points won in 2011 was the lowest among top 20 players.

Dolgopolov is an average to below average returner – especially off the first serve – but I expect him to find some more success with Simon’s first serve this time around.  Dolgopolov was wearing down at the end of 2011, but I think his one and a half months off have served him well.  He scored an impressive win against Radek Stepanek earlier in the tournament.

I think Dolgopolov makes his first final of 2012 with a victory over Simon.

PREDICTION: DOLGOPOLOV 3-6 6-3 7-5

BERNARD TOMIC VS. ANDY MURRAY

Australian young gun Bernard Tomic takes on world #4 Andy Murray in the other semifinal in Brisbane.  Tomic should have a bit of a home field advantage, but that is the only advantage that he has in this matchup with the talented Scot.

Tomic and Murray have never met on tour – but this first meeting promises to be a good one.  Tomic is a talented and gritty young player, but Murray’s all-around weapons will likely be too much for him to handle.  The strength of Murray’s game is that he has potentially the best return of serve in the game (if Novak Djokovic is reading this – yes – you have an argument for that mantle as well).

Unfortunately for Tomic, his first serve is not a great weapon, with him winning only 71% of points off his first serve.  Additionally, Tomic’s first serve return, where he wins only 26% of points, also will not be enough to prevail against Murray.  Murray on the other hand wins 75% of first serve points and 37% of first serve returns – a good recipe for being a top player.

Murray should make the Australian home crowd go home disappointed as he easily dispatches the hometown boy.

PREDICTION: MURRAY 6-4 6-2

2012
01/06
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Tennis Preview – BNP Paribas Masters Semifinals

Despite the fact that the BNP Paribas Masters lost a quarterfinal match today with Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal, it was a terrific day of tennis.  Andy Murray finally lost a match in a three set epic to Tomas Berdych.  John Isner scored a stunning upset against Spaniard David Ferrer, proving that he is more than just a big server. Finally, Roger Federer had the easiest go of it with a hard fought straight sets victory over Argentine Juan Monaco.

The semi-finals are now upon us and Baseline Rally’s picks to make the finals are still alive.   I still expect a Federer vs. Tsonga final, although it certainly won’t be easy.

ROGER FEDERER VS. TOMAS BERDYCH:

In the first semi-final of the day, 16-time grand slam champion Roger Federer meets Czech #1 and world #7 Tomas Berdych.  These men have met 13 times in their career with Federer holding a 9-4 edge.  However, in recent history, Berdych has been able to overcome Federer, winning three of the last four meetings between the two.  Moreover, the only Federer victory in their last four matches needed a final set tiebreaker to decide the contest.

In looking at their recent history, it is clear that Federer has trouble with Berdych’s big first serve.  At the Masters tournament in Cincinnati earlier this year, Berdych had a relatively easy 6-2 7-6 victory in which he won 86% of first serve points.  In that match, Federer won only 25% of his 2nd serve points, a number which is not sustainable for Berdych, and which is not a trend that we can expect to continue.

The most recent match-up where both players played to form was in Toronto last year when Federer won 6-4 5-7 7-6.  In that match, Berdych captured 77% of first service points, while Federer won 49% of his 2nd service points.

If recent form is any indicator, Federer holds a slight advantage.  Federer has not lost a match since bowing out at the US Open with his tournament victory in Basel last week and his semi-final appearance this week.  Berdych recently won the tournament in Beijing before two early round exits in Shanghai and Basel.

I expect both men to hold serve quite easily for the majority of the match, with Federer coming up bigger in the big points.  While Berdych recorded a big victory over Andy Murray today, he struggled converting break points and set points.  If this trend continues, Federer will take advantage.  Look for Federer to win a tight match.

PREDICTION: Federer 7-5 4-6 6-3

JOHN ISNER VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

In tennis’ equivalent of a heavyweight fight, two of the biggest hitters in the game face-off in the semi-finals as American John Isner takes on local hero Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.   This is only the second meeting between the two players with Isner winning their only previous match-up in Washington in 2009.  While Isner won the match in three sets, Tsonga actually won more points and Isner needed tie-breaks to win both his sets.

In looking at the numbers from their previous match-up, it should come as no surprise that both players held serve quite easily.  In fact, Isner was unable to break Tsonga’s serve at all in the match (and Tsonga was only able to break once).  Tsonga was able to win 86% of first serve points back in Washington while Isner took 78% of first serve points and 62% of 2nd serve points.

While Isner has been playing fairly well from the baseline in this event, it is still clear that Tsonga’s all-court game is far superior to Isner’s.  He will likely have trouble breaking serve since his return game is not his strength, but I expect Tsonga to do just enough with his returns to win the match.  This may be a marathon but I like Tsonga to win.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 6-4 6-7 6-3

2011
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Djokovic withdraws from BNP Paribas Masters

Clearly, Novak Djokovic was trying to ruin my beautiful plan of watching tennis all day by withdrawing from the BNP Paribas Masters with a right shoulder injury.

Hopefully the world’s best player will be alright in time for the tour finals in London at the end of the month.  At the very least, we certainly hope to see Novak back by January for the Australian Open.

This leaves Andy Murray and Roger Federer as the clear favorites to win this season’s last Masters tournament.  Murray, however, is in tough with Czech Tomas Berdych (that match is currently on serve in the first).

 

2011
11/11
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Tennis Preview – BNP Paribas Masters Quarterfinals

If you are a tennis fan, you can’t ask for a much better day than tomorrow, with six of the top eight players in the world in action at the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris.   Baseline Rally sees a couple of upsets and a couple of favorites making the final four at the final Masters event of the year.

TOMAS BERDYCH VS. ANDY MURRAY:

Fifth seed and world #7, Czech Tomas Berdych takes on #2 seed and world #3 Andy Murray in the first match-up of the day.  Tennis fans (and readers of this blog) know that Murray has not lost since the US Open, but a match-up with Berdych has always presented problems for the Scotsman.

Berdych has a 2-1 career record against Murray with Murray’s only win coming all the way back in 2005.  Their most recent match came in 2010 at Roland Garros with Berdych winning in straight sets.  The most telling statistic from that match is that Berdych won an astounding 92% of first serve points against one of the best returners in the business – on clay no less.  While that number of first serve points won by Berdych is unsustainable, it does suggest that Murray has trouble picking up that weapon of Berdych’s.

That having been said, Murray has been playing so well that it is hard to pick against him.  Moreover, his potent return game which may be the best in tennis (although Djokovic fans would argue otherwise) could pose problems for Berdych if he does not get enough first balls in.

This match is too close to call, but based on a hunch and the overwhelming amount of first serve points that Berdych won in their last match-up, I’m going with the upset.

PREDICTION: Berdych 4-6 6-3 6-4

JUAN MONACO VS. ROGER FEDERER:

The second quarterfinal of the day pits two gentlemen who made finals last week as #3 seed and world #4 Roger Federer takes on world #34 Juan Monaco.  Last week, Federer won his home country tournament in Basel, while Monaco lost the finals in Valencia, Spain in heartbreaking fashion to Marcel Granollers.

These two have met twice this year, both times on hard courts, with Federer winning both in dominant fashion.  Fed fans will likely remember that the Swiss maestro steamrolled Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 at the US Open a few months back.  A look at the stats from that US Open match shows that Federer won 65% of 2nd serve points – an unsustainable number against a good returner like Monaco.  He also won 60% of points on Monaco’s 1st serve which also won’t be duplicated.

That having been said, when these two played a more realistic match in Miami earlier this year, Federer still won in straight sets 7-6 6-4.  In both matches, Federer won 84% of first service points and I expect that trend to continue.

While Monaco has a nice game, he has no weapons to challenge Federer who is better than him in all areas of the court.  In order for Monaco to even stay competitive he will have to attack Federer’s 2nd serve and have his first serve percentage over 70%.  Even in that scenario, I can’t see Monaco winning the match.

PREDICTION: Federer 6-3 6-4

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA:

World #1 Novak Djokovic takes on local hero and world #8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next quarterfinal match in Paris.  These two have played many classic matches against each other with Tsonga leading the overall series 5-4.   However, Djokovic prevailed in both meetings this year with Tsonga retiring in Montreal and Djokovic winning a tight match in the Wimbledon semi-finals.

The numbers from their last few matches show that we can expect Tsonga to win about 67% of first serve points and about 47% of second serve points.  Usually, numbers along these lines would not be enough for a player with a middling return game like Tsonga to win a match.   On the other hand, Djokovic typically wins 73% of 1st serve points and 58% of 2nd serve points against Tsonga.  Looking at these numbers, and Djokovic’s form this year, he would be the overwhelming favorite.

That having been said, Djokovic has not looked at his best this tournament.  He struggled to get going in his round of 16 match-up against countryman Victor Troicki before taking over in the 3rd set.  Couple that with Kei Nishikori dismantling him last week in Basel, and I think that Djokovic’s historic season is starting to take a toll.

Tsonga, who will be riled up by the hometown crowd, will play his trademark attacking style, and I believe that it will be enough to beat a tiring Djoker.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 7-6 3-6 6-4

DAVID FERRER VS. JOHN ISNER

The last quarterfinal has world #5 David Ferrer taking on world #25 John Isner.   Ferrer typically feasts on big serve, big forehand players like Isner (he went 4-0 against Milos Raonic this year), and his history against Isner suggests more of the same.

Ferrer has played Isner three times in his career, all on hard courts, and has won all three.  In reviewing their match stats, it is clear that Isner’s trademark, his serve, does not work as well against Ferrer.  The Spaniard is an expert at putting balls in play, and the more balls put in play against a guy like Isner, the better your chances are of victory.  Against Ferrer, Isner only manages to win about 68% of first service points and his return numbers are actually worse than usual as well.

Expect Ferrer to frustrate Isner at every turn with his shot variety and tremendous defensive tennis.  Isner likely will not have any answers unless Ferrer is fatigued by his recent intense schedule.  Ferrer should win handily.

PREDICTION: Ferrer 6-3 6-3

2011
11/10
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Tennis Preview – Thursday November 10

Tomorrow promises to be a great day for tennis fans with 12 of the top 20 players in the world playing (and 14 of the top 23).  Expect some tight and exciting matches at the final Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

As always, Baseline Rally will evaluate the players, analyze the match-ups and offer up some predictions.

ANDY RODDICK VS. ANDY MURRAY

The action kicks off at center court tomorrow with the top two players in the world named Andy.  The similarities between the players ends at their first names though, as Roddick relies on his potent service game, while Murray possesses one of the top return games in tennis.

Murray has been in fine form recently, going undefeated since faltering in the US Open semi-finals.  Roddick on the other hand, has had some up and down results most recently getting steamrolled by the Fed Express in the Basel quarterfinals.

This match-up presents some severe problems for Roddick, who has gone 3-7 in his career against Murray.  If Roddick is unable to get free points on serve, Murray’s ability to turn defense into offense makes Roddick the underdog in long rallies.  If past history is any indicator, Roddick will struggle to get free points on serve.

In their most recent match-up at Queen’s Club earlier this year, Roddick’s 1st serve percentage was a blistering 82% yet he was still destroyed by the score of 6-3 6-1.  Murray was easily able to neutralize Roddick’s serve, as the American was only able to win 52% of 1st serve points.  Murray also won the battle of aces serving 13 to 3 for Roddick.  Expect this trend to continue.

PREDICTION: Murray 6-2 6-2

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. VICTOR TROICKI

The best player in the world, Djokovic, will try to add to his historic season with a win in Paris.  Standing in his way in the round of 16 is his countryman Victor Troicki – the #19 player in the world.

Djokovic has had an easy go of it against his fellow Serbian in their history.  The Djoker has won 9 of the 10 meetings between the two including the most recent 9 matches.   The two have met twice already this year with Troicki only winning a total of 6 games over the course of their four sets.

In their meeting in Miami earlier this year, Troicki was only able to win 51% of first service points.  Djokovic has too many weapons and athleticism for Troicki to remain competitive.

PREDICTION: Djokovic 6-4 6-3

JO-WILFRIED TSONGA VS. ANDREAS SEPPI

Despite the fact that I always struggle to spell his first name, I am an unabashed fan of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  The 8th ranked Frenchman does everything big including his blistering serve and his amazing forehand.  He matches up against Italian Andreas Seppi, who is the lowest ranked player remaining in the tournament at #46.

Seppi is a nice player with a finesse all-court game, but I can’t see him keeping up with Tsonga on his home turf.  Tsonga usually struggles with dangerous returners or players who can hold serve easily as Tsonga’s return game is certainly not his strength.  Seppi possesses neither of these qualities as his first serve return is decidedly average and his serve is below average.

These two met most recently in the Australian Open at the beginning of the season, where Tsonga won in straight sets (including two by tie-break).  Seppi was successful in longer rallies off the Tsonga second serve, but was unable to translate this into a match victory.

Look for Tsonga to continue on in this tournament.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 7-6 6-4

MARDY FISH VS. JUAN MONACO

In what might be the best match of the day, world #9 Mardy Fish takes on the 34th player in the world in Argentinian Juan Monaco.  Fish looked dominant today in taking out tough German Florian Mayer.  However, Monaco has been playing the best hard court tennis of his career, reaching the finals at Valencia last week including beating David Ferrer in the quarterfinals.

Monaco has taken his fine form into this week with two dominant performances over Donald Young and Gilles Simon.  His win over Simon today on Simon’s home turf was especially impressive.

These two have met three times on tour with Fish holding a 2-1 series lead although all three matches were extremely competitive (and two took place a long time ago).  In their most recent meeting on clay, Monaco won 7-6 7-5, using his impressive return of serve and heavily top spinned groundstrokes to his advantage.

I expect Fish to be very aggressive and try to press the play in this match.  However, Monaco’s defense may force Fish into many unforced errors.  I like the mild upset in a very close match.

PREDICTION: Monaco 3-6 7-5 6-4

RICHARD GASQUET VS. ROGER FEDERER

If you are a fan of all court, beautiful tennis, you will love this match-up between 20th ranked Gasquet and world #4 Federer.  These two are dangerous from anywhere on the court and play a brand of the game that purists love.  This should be a great one to watch.

Federer has had the better of Gasquet in their careers, holding an 8-2 mark over the Frenchman.  Also of note, Federer is 4-0 on hard courts against Gasquet.  In their most recent match-up, Gasquet prevailed at the Italian Masters event 4-6 7-6 7-6 on clay.  In analyzing the numbers of that match, Gasquet won an unsustainable 74% of his 2nd serve points.  With a regression toward the mean, Federer would have taken that tight match.  Earlier this year on a hard court in Dubai, Federer won 6-2 7-5.  In that match-up, Gasquet won a more realistic 54% of points on his 2nd serve (and only 53% of points on his first serve).

Even at this stage of his career, Federer does not lose often, and when he does it is usually against players who can pound him from the baseline (like Djokovic or Nadal).  While Gasquet plays a very pretty game, I don’t believe that he has the weapons to beat Federer on an indoor hard court.

Federer played a great tourney in Basel, and in his current form, he will defeat Gasquet in straight sets.

PREDICTION: Federer 7-5 6-4

TOMAS BERDYCH VS. JANKO TIPSAREVIC

In yet another marquee match in Paris, world #7 Berdych takes on world #11 Tipsarevic.  Tipsarevic has been playing some of the best tennis of his career, having won Moscow and reaching the finals in St Petersburg before retiring last week in Basel against Florian Mayer.  Berdych, on the other hand, has a 1-2 record since an impressive tournament win in Beijing in early October.

In addition to Tipsarevic’s recent success, he has also historically had success in his head-to-head match-up with Berdych.  Tipsarevic is 4-0 in his career against the Czech national and has only dropped two sets in their four meetings.

Tipsarevic’s mix of consistency and firepower always gives Berdych fits and I expect it to continue to do so.  Additionally, with Tipsarevic coming in with a lot of confidence, he will likely be even more dangerous.

PREDICTION: Tipsarevic 6-4 7-6

DAVID FERRER VS. ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV

In yet another battle of top 20 players, fifth ranked Ferrer faces 17th ranked Dolgopolov on the indoor courts of Paris.  29 year old Ferrer is a model of consistency and rarely beats himself.  Dolgopolov is also a finesse player, albeit a finesse player with a pretty big game.  He takes more risks and makes more errors from the baseline.

After bowing out early in his last few tournaments, Dolgopolov finally was able to win a match against Philip Kohlschreiber today.  He is in tough, however, against Ferrer, who is in his usual fine form having made the semi-finals of the event at Valencia last week.

Ferrer boasts a 3-1 career record against the Ukranian including 2-0 on hard courts.  His consistency and prowess from the baseline will be too much for a struggling Dolgopolov.

PREDICTION: Ferrer 6-4 6-4

JOHN ISNER VS. FELICIANO LOPEZ

Finally, the third ranked American in the world, #23 John Isner, takes on the 4th ranked Spaniard in the world in #21 Feliciano Lopez.

Lopez is not your prototypical Spanish player, as he is a huge server and a middling returner.  If this sounds familiar, it is probably because Isner has a very similar game.  Both are near the top of the standings in aces this year, with Isner at 751 and Lopez at 719.  Amazingly, Lopez is actually slightly more successful on his first serve, winning an impressive 78% of those points while Isner checks in at 77%.

This is the first meeting between these two and I expect a marathon.  In addition to the first serve points won mentioned above, both players are decidedly below average on both 1st and 2nd serve return points.  Isner wins an abysmal 24% of 1st serve returns – lowest among top 25 players and an equally unimpressive 42% of 2nd serve points – also lowest among top 25 players.  Lopez is slightly better but is second worst among top 25 players in both categories at 26% and 44%.  On 2nd serve returns, the next closest in futility among the top 25 wins 48% of those points.

All this to say, I don’t see many breaks of serve happening in this match.

PREDICTION: Isner 7-6 6-7 7-6

 

 

2011
11/09
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Quick Tennis commentary – Del Potro’s withdrawal

The news of Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal from the BNP Paribas Master’s in Paris does not come as too much of a shock given his recent injury woes.

However, I don’t understand how the tournament orgainzers can give Igor Kunitsyn – who lost in qualifying – a bye into the 2nd round.  A much more palpable option would have been for Kunitsyn to play another lucky loser and add another match to this tournament and getting rid of Del Po’s bye altogether.

2011
11/07
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BRACKETOLOGY – BNP Paribas Masters

With singles qualifying finishing up today, the official bracket for the final Masters event of the year is now official.  http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2011/352/mds.pdf

Baseline Rally breaks down the entire bracket of the BNP Paribas Masters for you including winners, upsets and dark horses.

TOP LEFT CORNER:

Players:

Novak Djokovic (1), Fabio Fogini, Ivan Dodig, Kei Nishikori, Sergy Stakhovsky, Victor Troicki (15), Nicolas Almagro (9), Andreas Seppi, Nikolai Davydenko, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Santiago Giraldo, Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga (6)

Dark Horse:

Victor Troicki.

As the 15th seed, Troicki gets a first round bye and then gets the winner of Stakhovsky vs. Nishikori in the 2nd round.  Nishikori is likely to be exhausted after losing in the finals of Basel earlier today.   Djokovic would be looming in round 3, however, Novak appeared to be slightly injured in his semi-final match against Nishikori in Basel.  Troicki may be able to take advantage and reach the final 8.

Early Upset:

Andreas Seppi over Nicolas Almagro

Seppi qualified for this tournament and faces Nikolai Davydenko in the first round which I expect he will win.  Thereafter, he faces Almagro who looks increasingly lost on the hard courts after a remarkable clay court season where he won three titles.  While Almagro is the 9th seed in this tournament, he won’t last long.  Even if he squeaks past Seppi, he won’t likely get by Tsonga in the following round.

Baseline Rally’s Pick to win the section:

Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga over Novak Djokovic

While Djokovic may have enough juice to make the final eight, his loss to Nishikori this past week shows that his remarkable season has taken a toll.  Tsonga is looking to secure his place in the ATP World Tour Finals and a good result in this tournament will get him there.  Tsonga is the pick.

BOTTOM LEFT CORNER:

Players:

David Ferrer (4), Juan Carlos Ferrero, Nicolas Mahut, Mikhail Youzhny, Phillip Kohlschreiber, Alexandr Dolgopolov (14), Juan Martin del Potro (12), Stanislas Wawrinka, John Isner, Michael Llodra, Feliciano Lopez, Gael Monfils (8)

Dark Horse:

Phillip Kohlschreiber

Kohlschreiber faces an out of form Mikhail Youzhny in the first round in a match he will win if he plays to his potential.  Thereafter, he plays Dolgopolov who has had a tremendous breakout year, but has bowed out in the first round in his last three tournaments.  The German would have a tough go of it with David Ferrer looming in the final eight, but I expect him to win at least two rounds.

Early Upset Pick:

Phillip Kohlschreiber over Alexandr Dolgopolov

See above.  Dolgopolov is a good young player with tremendous potential but is more comfortable on the clay courts and has not been playing well recently.  If Kohlschreiber can get by Youzhny, he is licking his lips for this tasty second round match.

Baseline Rally’s Pick to win the section:

David Ferrer over Juan Martin del Potro

After a deep run in Valencia, Ferrer will be happy to get a first round bye in Paris.  He also has a favorable draw with countryman Juan Carlos Ferrero looming in round #2 and whoever survives out of Kohlschreiber, Dolgopolov and Youzhny thereafter.  Del Potro has been playing well recently, but with his intense schedule and Ferrer’s impressive defensive play, look for Ferrer to get out of this section.

TOP RIGHT CORNER:

Mardy Fish (7), Florian Mayer, Radek Stepanek, Juan Monaco, Donald Young, Gilles Simon (10), Richard Gasquet (16), Gilles Muller, Kevin Anderson, Dmitry Tursunov, Adrian Mannarino, Roger Federer (3)

Dark Horse:

Florian Mayer

The German has a very tough first round match-up with Radek Stepanek, but if he can win that match, he gets Mardy Fish in the next round.  American Fish came up lame in Basel with a hamstring injury and has played quite sparingly in the last couple of months.  Mayer has been in fine form and should be able to take out Fish.  Mayer may even be able to advance to the final eight, with Gilles Simon or Donald Young waiting in the wings.

Early Upset Pick:

Donald Young over Gilles Simon

Young has finally started living up to his vast potential and is starting to look like a left handed Andre Agassi.  His superior defensive tennis and his creation of angles on his highly top-spinned groundstrokes have raised him to top 50 in the world.  Young has recently had success against players like Simon – very nice all court players who don’t possess enough firepower to get Young off his game.  I expect Young to take out Juan Monaco in the first round and then dispatch of Simon in straight sets.

Baseline Rally’s Pick to win the section:

Roger Federer over Florian Mayer

Federer has me drinking the Kool Aid again after his utter domination of Kei Nishikori in Basel.  The Swiss hero is also well rested with Basel being the only tournament that he has played since the US Open.  Truth be told, unless Federer’s form drops substantially, I see no one in the group who will even challenge him.

BOTTOM RIGHT CORNER:

Players:

Tomas Berdych (5), Marin Cilic, Fernando Verdasco, Thomas Belucci, Alex Bogomolov, Jr., Janko Tipsarevic (11), Andy Roddick (13), Milos Raonic, Julien Benneteau, Jeremy Chadry, Marcel Granollers, Andy Murray (2)

Dark Horse:

Milos Raonic

The young Canadian has a favorable first round match-up with Julien Benneteau and I expect him to win that match handily.  Thereafter, Raonic faces Andy Roddick.  These two played one of the best finals of 2011 in Memphis where Roddick won 7-5 in the third set.  Roddick needed to play his best tennis to win that match and I expect Raonic to win the rematch.  If somehow, Marcel Granollers can take out Andy Murray, Raonic can make a lot of noise in this section of the draw.

Early Upset Pick:

Marin Cilic over Tomas Berdych

If Cilic manages to win his tough first round match with veteran Spanish lefty Fernando Verdasco, this tantalizing match with Berdych awaits.  Cilic has been in fine form recently, while Berdych dropped his first round match in Basel last week.  These players play a similar style, and with Cilic playing better these days, I think he can get by Berdych and set up a great round of 16 match-up with Janko Tipsarevic.

Baseline Rally’s Pick to win the section:

Andy Murray over Janko Tipsarevic

Murray has been playing some great tennis as he has not lost a match since the US Open.  He will face a likely tired Marcel Granollers in the second round in a favorable match-up and potentially Milos Raonic or Andy Roddick thereafter.  With Murray’s fantastic return of serve game, he should cruise to the final eight before a very tough match against Cilic, Berdych or Tipsarevic.  The Scot’s tremendous play of late should be enough to win.

FINAL FOUR:

Federer over Murray

Tsonga over Ferrer

BASELINE RALLY’S PICK TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT:

Roger Federer over Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga

2011
11/06
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Tennis Preview – Valencia and Basel Finals

Tennis fans: Raise your hands if when you saw the draw in Valencia you picked a Juan Monaco vs. Marcel Granollers final.  Yeah, me neither…

The Basel final is a little bit more conventional with local hero Roger Federer making it to the final two against young Japanese star Kei Nishikori.

FINALS PREVIEW – BASEL:

The exciting finals match-up in Basel features perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, Roger Federer against a man who looks primed to be a top ten player within the next two years in Kei Nishikori.  Nishikori seems to have been taking a page out of Federer’s book recently, adding a potent net game to his already impressive all-around game.

Nishikori pulled off easily the biggest win of his career earlier today when he beat world #1 Novak Djokovic in three sets, including a bagel in the third set.  Federer, in the meantime, dominated his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in two sets to reach the finals.

This is the first time that these two will meet on tour and while Nishikori is playing the best tennis of his life, it is hard to pick against Federer in this one.  For one, Nishikori has yet to win a title on the ATP tour, so nerves will certainly be a factor.  Second, Federer will likely be the fresher player of the two given that he has not dropped a set since Jarko Nieminen took one off him in the round of 16.

Moreover, while I love Nishikori’s game, Federer is just a tick better in most areas of the court at this point.  Federer has had some difficulty on his opponents’ serves this year, so that will negate was is probably Nishikori’s greatest weakness.  That should keep this match very competitive.

This will likely be a very tough, hard fought match, but I think that Federer has just enough to take it.

PREDICTION: Federer 6-3 4-6 6-4

FINALS PREVIEW – VALENCIA:

In a tournament that featured 13 of the top 30 players in the world, world #34 Marcel Granollers and world #41 Juan Monaco reached the finals.  Not only are these not some of the higher ranked players that entered the tournament, these guys are both much more comfortable on clay courts.  Granollers has won two tournaments in his ATP tour career – both on clay while all of Monaco’s three tournament victories on tour have come on the dirt.   Moreover, in his ten year career, Monaco has made ten tour finals – all on clay.  The only other time that Granollers has made a final on hard courts was at this very same tournament last year.

Granollers and Monaco have met twice before on tour.  The only time that they have met on hard courts was last year at this tournament in Valencia in the quarter-finals.  Granollers prevailed at that time in three tough sets.  Interesting to note in that match-up was that Granollers had some good success when he got his first serve in play (72%) and very little success when he put his second serve in play (32%).

Expect a very emotional crowd to lift Granollers and for him to seize the moment.  Both players have similar games which rely on consistency and placement instead of power.  In a match-up that looks this close on paper, the home field advantage looks like enough to carry the day.

PREDICTION: Granollers 6-4 5-7 6-2

 

2011
11/05
CATEGORY
ATP
Swiss Indoors
Tennis
Valencia Open
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Tennis Preview – Saturday November 5

Upsets have ruled the day in both Valencia and Basel, as all of the semi-final matches in both tournaments feature seeded players against unseeded players.

Order will likely be restored in Basel, while I predict one major upset in Valencia.

BASEL SEMI-FINALS:

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. KEI NISHIKORI

Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori enters the semi-finals in fine form, having recorded an impressive first round win over Tomas Berdych before subsequently dispatching Andreas Seppi and Mikhail Kukushkin.  Nishikori is one of the top young players in tennis and he has shown off his all around game in Basel, playing impressively off the forehand wing and displaying an impressive net game.

Djokovic, on the other  hand, has been playing at a little bit of a lower level than his otherworldly standards.  He surprisingly lost sets to players outside the top 50 in Xavier Malisse and Marcos Baghdatis.  Nishikori will easily be Djokovic’s stiffest test to date as he has avoided playing a top 35 player to this point in the tournament.

Look for Nishikori to come out guns ablazing and keep this match competitive until Djokovic’s experience and slightly better all-around game  carry the day.  I especially like Djokovic to begin deciphering Nishikori’s service game and pull away in the third set in what promises to be a competitive thriller.

PREDICTION: Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-2

STANISLAS WAWRINKA VS. ROGER FEDERER

Swiss tennis fans will undoubtedly be excited to see their top two tennis players meet in the semi-finals of their home tournament in Basel.  Olympic doubles partners, world top 20 players and good friends Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka square off tomorrow in what should be an interesting match.

While Wawrinka has certainly played well in this tournament, he has benefited from his draw in this tournament.  Specifically, Andy Murray’s withdrawal led Wawrinka to meet talented youngster Robin Haase instead of the world #3 in the second round.  Wawrinka has had to defeat a top 30 player (Florian Mayer) a top 40 player (Ivan Dodig) and a top 50 player (Haase) to get to the semis and he looked especially impressive in knocking out a hot Florian in the last round.

Federer seems to be rounding into form at exactly the right time.  After a rough first few games against American Andy Roddick, Federer began dominating his quarterfinal match before cruising to an easy 3 and 2 victory.

Historically Federer has not had a problem with his countryman and there is no reason to think that anything will change this time around.  Federer is 9-1 lifetime against Wawrinka and has won 15 out of the last 16 sets against his mate.  While Federer is definitely the more complete player, Wawrinka often seems in awe at the player on the other end of the net when they meet and his form drops.

PREDICTION: Federer 6-4 6-2

VALENCIA SEMI-FINALS

DAVID FERRER VS. JUAN MONACO

Two familiar opponents face off in Valencia as defending champion and world #5 David Ferrer takes on veteran Argentine and world #41 Juan Monaco.

Historically, these two have played very tight matches with both players winning three times in their six career meetings.  Most recently, Ferrer prevailed over Monaco in Acapulco earlier this year, however, an examination of that match shows that it certainly could have gone the other way.  While Ferrer converted 5/7 breakpoints, Monaco only was able to convert four out of his astounding 14 break point chances.  If Monaco were able to take adavantage of his opportunities, he would have been the victor.

Monaco historically has been able to handle Ferrer’s less than stellar first serve.  In their three most recent match-ups, Ferrer has prevailed on 61%, 67% and 61% of first service points.  This is well below his average of 73% of first service points won.

I expect Monaco to continue to challenge Ferrer’s serve and to convert more of his break opportunities.

PREDICTION: MONACO 6-7 6-4 7-5

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO VS. MARCEL GRANOLLERS

Count me as someone who thought that Marcel Granollers was going to fall outside the top 50 this week, as I felt that there would be no way that he could defend the 300 points that he gained from making the Valencia finals last year.  Well, it looks like I may have been off, as he gone on yet another amazing run in his home country by making the semi-finals.  Along the way, he has pulled off upsets against Alexandr Dolgopolov, Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils.  Defeating the latter two was no small feat as both had been coming off tournament victories in their most recent events.

Granollers’ luck will probably run out against Juan Martin Del Potro who is likely motivated by the chance to make the ATP World Tour Finals with a victory in Valencia and a good showing at the Masters 1000 event in Paris next week.

Granollers game relies on precision and consistency and I believe that he will have trouble with Del Potro’s big weapons.  When Del Potro is on, like his is this week, the only way for Del Potro to lose to a player like Granollers is to defeat himself.  Del Potro has too much on the line to let that happen.

Look for Del Potro to attack Granollers all match and force his opponent to play some offense.  Del Potro should cruise through to the finals against a very hot opponent.

PREDICTION: Del Potro 6-3 6-2

 

2011
11/04
CATEGORY
ATP
Swiss Indoors
Tennis
Valencia Open
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