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Tennis Preview – BNP Paribas Masters Semifinals

Despite the fact that the BNP Paribas Masters lost a quarterfinal match today with Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal, it was a terrific day of tennis.  Andy Murray finally lost a match in a three set epic to Tomas Berdych.  John Isner scored a stunning upset against Spaniard David Ferrer, proving that he is more than just a big server. Finally, Roger Federer had the easiest go of it with a hard fought straight sets victory over Argentine Juan Monaco.

The semi-finals are now upon us and Baseline Rally’s picks to make the finals are still alive.   I still expect a Federer vs. Tsonga final, although it certainly won’t be easy.

ROGER FEDERER VS. TOMAS BERDYCH:

In the first semi-final of the day, 16-time grand slam champion Roger Federer meets Czech #1 and world #7 Tomas Berdych.  These men have met 13 times in their career with Federer holding a 9-4 edge.  However, in recent history, Berdych has been able to overcome Federer, winning three of the last four meetings between the two.  Moreover, the only Federer victory in their last four matches needed a final set tiebreaker to decide the contest.

In looking at their recent history, it is clear that Federer has trouble with Berdych’s big first serve.  At the Masters tournament in Cincinnati earlier this year, Berdych had a relatively easy 6-2 7-6 victory in which he won 86% of first serve points.  In that match, Federer won only 25% of his 2nd serve points, a number which is not sustainable for Berdych, and which is not a trend that we can expect to continue.

The most recent match-up where both players played to form was in Toronto last year when Federer won 6-4 5-7 7-6.  In that match, Berdych captured 77% of first service points, while Federer won 49% of his 2nd service points.

If recent form is any indicator, Federer holds a slight advantage.  Federer has not lost a match since bowing out at the US Open with his tournament victory in Basel last week and his semi-final appearance this week.  Berdych recently won the tournament in Beijing before two early round exits in Shanghai and Basel.

I expect both men to hold serve quite easily for the majority of the match, with Federer coming up bigger in the big points.  While Berdych recorded a big victory over Andy Murray today, he struggled converting break points and set points.  If this trend continues, Federer will take advantage.  Look for Federer to win a tight match.

PREDICTION: Federer 7-5 4-6 6-3

JOHN ISNER VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

In tennis’ equivalent of a heavyweight fight, two of the biggest hitters in the game face-off in the semi-finals as American John Isner takes on local hero Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.   This is only the second meeting between the two players with Isner winning their only previous match-up in Washington in 2009.  While Isner won the match in three sets, Tsonga actually won more points and Isner needed tie-breaks to win both his sets.

In looking at the numbers from their previous match-up, it should come as no surprise that both players held serve quite easily.  In fact, Isner was unable to break Tsonga’s serve at all in the match (and Tsonga was only able to break once).  Tsonga was able to win 86% of first serve points back in Washington while Isner took 78% of first serve points and 62% of 2nd serve points.

While Isner has been playing fairly well from the baseline in this event, it is still clear that Tsonga’s all-court game is far superior to Isner’s.  He will likely have trouble breaking serve since his return game is not his strength, but I expect Tsonga to do just enough with his returns to win the match.  This may be a marathon but I like Tsonga to win.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 6-4 6-7 6-3

2011
11/11
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Tennis Preview – BNP Paribas Masters Quarterfinals

If you are a tennis fan, you can’t ask for a much better day than tomorrow, with six of the top eight players in the world in action at the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris.   Baseline Rally sees a couple of upsets and a couple of favorites making the final four at the final Masters event of the year.

TOMAS BERDYCH VS. ANDY MURRAY:

Fifth seed and world #7, Czech Tomas Berdych takes on #2 seed and world #3 Andy Murray in the first match-up of the day.  Tennis fans (and readers of this blog) know that Murray has not lost since the US Open, but a match-up with Berdych has always presented problems for the Scotsman.

Berdych has a 2-1 career record against Murray with Murray’s only win coming all the way back in 2005.  Their most recent match came in 2010 at Roland Garros with Berdych winning in straight sets.  The most telling statistic from that match is that Berdych won an astounding 92% of first serve points against one of the best returners in the business – on clay no less.  While that number of first serve points won by Berdych is unsustainable, it does suggest that Murray has trouble picking up that weapon of Berdych’s.

That having been said, Murray has been playing so well that it is hard to pick against him.  Moreover, his potent return game which may be the best in tennis (although Djokovic fans would argue otherwise) could pose problems for Berdych if he does not get enough first balls in.

This match is too close to call, but based on a hunch and the overwhelming amount of first serve points that Berdych won in their last match-up, I’m going with the upset.

PREDICTION: Berdych 4-6 6-3 6-4

JUAN MONACO VS. ROGER FEDERER:

The second quarterfinal of the day pits two gentlemen who made finals last week as #3 seed and world #4 Roger Federer takes on world #34 Juan Monaco.  Last week, Federer won his home country tournament in Basel, while Monaco lost the finals in Valencia, Spain in heartbreaking fashion to Marcel Granollers.

These two have met twice this year, both times on hard courts, with Federer winning both in dominant fashion.  Fed fans will likely remember that the Swiss maestro steamrolled Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 at the US Open a few months back.  A look at the stats from that US Open match shows that Federer won 65% of 2nd serve points – an unsustainable number against a good returner like Monaco.  He also won 60% of points on Monaco’s 1st serve which also won’t be duplicated.

That having been said, when these two played a more realistic match in Miami earlier this year, Federer still won in straight sets 7-6 6-4.  In both matches, Federer won 84% of first service points and I expect that trend to continue.

While Monaco has a nice game, he has no weapons to challenge Federer who is better than him in all areas of the court.  In order for Monaco to even stay competitive he will have to attack Federer’s 2nd serve and have his first serve percentage over 70%.  Even in that scenario, I can’t see Monaco winning the match.

PREDICTION: Federer 6-3 6-4

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA:

World #1 Novak Djokovic takes on local hero and world #8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next quarterfinal match in Paris.  These two have played many classic matches against each other with Tsonga leading the overall series 5-4.   However, Djokovic prevailed in both meetings this year with Tsonga retiring in Montreal and Djokovic winning a tight match in the Wimbledon semi-finals.

The numbers from their last few matches show that we can expect Tsonga to win about 67% of first serve points and about 47% of second serve points.  Usually, numbers along these lines would not be enough for a player with a middling return game like Tsonga to win a match.   On the other hand, Djokovic typically wins 73% of 1st serve points and 58% of 2nd serve points against Tsonga.  Looking at these numbers, and Djokovic’s form this year, he would be the overwhelming favorite.

That having been said, Djokovic has not looked at his best this tournament.  He struggled to get going in his round of 16 match-up against countryman Victor Troicki before taking over in the 3rd set.  Couple that with Kei Nishikori dismantling him last week in Basel, and I think that Djokovic’s historic season is starting to take a toll.

Tsonga, who will be riled up by the hometown crowd, will play his trademark attacking style, and I believe that it will be enough to beat a tiring Djoker.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 7-6 3-6 6-4

DAVID FERRER VS. JOHN ISNER

The last quarterfinal has world #5 David Ferrer taking on world #25 John Isner.   Ferrer typically feasts on big serve, big forehand players like Isner (he went 4-0 against Milos Raonic this year), and his history against Isner suggests more of the same.

Ferrer has played Isner three times in his career, all on hard courts, and has won all three.  In reviewing their match stats, it is clear that Isner’s trademark, his serve, does not work as well against Ferrer.  The Spaniard is an expert at putting balls in play, and the more balls put in play against a guy like Isner, the better your chances are of victory.  Against Ferrer, Isner only manages to win about 68% of first service points and his return numbers are actually worse than usual as well.

Expect Ferrer to frustrate Isner at every turn with his shot variety and tremendous defensive tennis.  Isner likely will not have any answers unless Ferrer is fatigued by his recent intense schedule.  Ferrer should win handily.

PREDICTION: Ferrer 6-3 6-3

2011
11/10
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Tennis Preview – Thursday November 10

Tomorrow promises to be a great day for tennis fans with 12 of the top 20 players in the world playing (and 14 of the top 23).  Expect some tight and exciting matches at the final Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

As always, Baseline Rally will evaluate the players, analyze the match-ups and offer up some predictions.

ANDY RODDICK VS. ANDY MURRAY

The action kicks off at center court tomorrow with the top two players in the world named Andy.  The similarities between the players ends at their first names though, as Roddick relies on his potent service game, while Murray possesses one of the top return games in tennis.

Murray has been in fine form recently, going undefeated since faltering in the US Open semi-finals.  Roddick on the other hand, has had some up and down results most recently getting steamrolled by the Fed Express in the Basel quarterfinals.

This match-up presents some severe problems for Roddick, who has gone 3-7 in his career against Murray.  If Roddick is unable to get free points on serve, Murray’s ability to turn defense into offense makes Roddick the underdog in long rallies.  If past history is any indicator, Roddick will struggle to get free points on serve.

In their most recent match-up at Queen’s Club earlier this year, Roddick’s 1st serve percentage was a blistering 82% yet he was still destroyed by the score of 6-3 6-1.  Murray was easily able to neutralize Roddick’s serve, as the American was only able to win 52% of 1st serve points.  Murray also won the battle of aces serving 13 to 3 for Roddick.  Expect this trend to continue.

PREDICTION: Murray 6-2 6-2

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. VICTOR TROICKI

The best player in the world, Djokovic, will try to add to his historic season with a win in Paris.  Standing in his way in the round of 16 is his countryman Victor Troicki – the #19 player in the world.

Djokovic has had an easy go of it against his fellow Serbian in their history.  The Djoker has won 9 of the 10 meetings between the two including the most recent 9 matches.   The two have met twice already this year with Troicki only winning a total of 6 games over the course of their four sets.

In their meeting in Miami earlier this year, Troicki was only able to win 51% of first service points.  Djokovic has too many weapons and athleticism for Troicki to remain competitive.

PREDICTION: Djokovic 6-4 6-3

JO-WILFRIED TSONGA VS. ANDREAS SEPPI

Despite the fact that I always struggle to spell his first name, I am an unabashed fan of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  The 8th ranked Frenchman does everything big including his blistering serve and his amazing forehand.  He matches up against Italian Andreas Seppi, who is the lowest ranked player remaining in the tournament at #46.

Seppi is a nice player with a finesse all-court game, but I can’t see him keeping up with Tsonga on his home turf.  Tsonga usually struggles with dangerous returners or players who can hold serve easily as Tsonga’s return game is certainly not his strength.  Seppi possesses neither of these qualities as his first serve return is decidedly average and his serve is below average.

These two met most recently in the Australian Open at the beginning of the season, where Tsonga won in straight sets (including two by tie-break).  Seppi was successful in longer rallies off the Tsonga second serve, but was unable to translate this into a match victory.

Look for Tsonga to continue on in this tournament.

PREDICTION: Tsonga 7-6 6-4

MARDY FISH VS. JUAN MONACO

In what might be the best match of the day, world #9 Mardy Fish takes on the 34th player in the world in Argentinian Juan Monaco.  Fish looked dominant today in taking out tough German Florian Mayer.  However, Monaco has been playing the best hard court tennis of his career, reaching the finals at Valencia last week including beating David Ferrer in the quarterfinals.

Monaco has taken his fine form into this week with two dominant performances over Donald Young and Gilles Simon.  His win over Simon today on Simon’s home turf was especially impressive.

These two have met three times on tour with Fish holding a 2-1 series lead although all three matches were extremely competitive (and two took place a long time ago).  In their most recent meeting on clay, Monaco won 7-6 7-5, using his impressive return of serve and heavily top spinned groundstrokes to his advantage.

I expect Fish to be very aggressive and try to press the play in this match.  However, Monaco’s defense may force Fish into many unforced errors.  I like the mild upset in a very close match.

PREDICTION: Monaco 3-6 7-5 6-4

RICHARD GASQUET VS. ROGER FEDERER

If you are a fan of all court, beautiful tennis, you will love this match-up between 20th ranked Gasquet and world #4 Federer.  These two are dangerous from anywhere on the court and play a brand of the game that purists love.  This should be a great one to watch.

Federer has had the better of Gasquet in their careers, holding an 8-2 mark over the Frenchman.  Also of note, Federer is 4-0 on hard courts against Gasquet.  In their most recent match-up, Gasquet prevailed at the Italian Masters event 4-6 7-6 7-6 on clay.  In analyzing the numbers of that match, Gasquet won an unsustainable 74% of his 2nd serve points.  With a regression toward the mean, Federer would have taken that tight match.  Earlier this year on a hard court in Dubai, Federer won 6-2 7-5.  In that match-up, Gasquet won a more realistic 54% of points on his 2nd serve (and only 53% of points on his first serve).

Even at this stage of his career, Federer does not lose often, and when he does it is usually against players who can pound him from the baseline (like Djokovic or Nadal).  While Gasquet plays a very pretty game, I don’t believe that he has the weapons to beat Federer on an indoor hard court.

Federer played a great tourney in Basel, and in his current form, he will defeat Gasquet in straight sets.

PREDICTION: Federer 7-5 6-4

TOMAS BERDYCH VS. JANKO TIPSAREVIC

In yet another marquee match in Paris, world #7 Berdych takes on world #11 Tipsarevic.  Tipsarevic has been playing some of the best tennis of his career, having won Moscow and reaching the finals in St Petersburg before retiring last week in Basel against Florian Mayer.  Berdych, on the other hand, has a 1-2 record since an impressive tournament win in Beijing in early October.

In addition to Tipsarevic’s recent success, he has also historically had success in his head-to-head match-up with Berdych.  Tipsarevic is 4-0 in his career against the Czech national and has only dropped two sets in their four meetings.

Tipsarevic’s mix of consistency and firepower always gives Berdych fits and I expect it to continue to do so.  Additionally, with Tipsarevic coming in with a lot of confidence, he will likely be even more dangerous.

PREDICTION: Tipsarevic 6-4 7-6

DAVID FERRER VS. ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV

In yet another battle of top 20 players, fifth ranked Ferrer faces 17th ranked Dolgopolov on the indoor courts of Paris.  29 year old Ferrer is a model of consistency and rarely beats himself.  Dolgopolov is also a finesse player, albeit a finesse player with a pretty big game.  He takes more risks and makes more errors from the baseline.

After bowing out early in his last few tournaments, Dolgopolov finally was able to win a match against Philip Kohlschreiber today.  He is in tough, however, against Ferrer, who is in his usual fine form having made the semi-finals of the event at Valencia last week.

Ferrer boasts a 3-1 career record against the Ukranian including 2-0 on hard courts.  His consistency and prowess from the baseline will be too much for a struggling Dolgopolov.

PREDICTION: Ferrer 6-4 6-4

JOHN ISNER VS. FELICIANO LOPEZ

Finally, the third ranked American in the world, #23 John Isner, takes on the 4th ranked Spaniard in the world in #21 Feliciano Lopez.

Lopez is not your prototypical Spanish player, as he is a huge server and a middling returner.  If this sounds familiar, it is probably because Isner has a very similar game.  Both are near the top of the standings in aces this year, with Isner at 751 and Lopez at 719.  Amazingly, Lopez is actually slightly more successful on his first serve, winning an impressive 78% of those points while Isner checks in at 77%.

This is the first meeting between these two and I expect a marathon.  In addition to the first serve points won mentioned above, both players are decidedly below average on both 1st and 2nd serve return points.  Isner wins an abysmal 24% of 1st serve returns – lowest among top 25 players and an equally unimpressive 42% of 2nd serve points – also lowest among top 25 players.  Lopez is slightly better but is second worst among top 25 players in both categories at 26% and 44%.  On 2nd serve returns, the next closest in futility among the top 25 wins 48% of those points.

All this to say, I don’t see many breaks of serve happening in this match.

PREDICTION: Isner 7-6 6-7 7-6

 

 

2011
11/09
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Quick Tennis commentary – Del Potro’s withdrawal

The news of Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal from the BNP Paribas Master’s in Paris does not come as too much of a shock given his recent injury woes.

However, I don’t understand how the tournament orgainzers can give Igor Kunitsyn – who lost in qualifying – a bye into the 2nd round.  A much more palpable option would have been for Kunitsyn to play another lucky loser and add another match to this tournament and getting rid of Del Po’s bye altogether.

2011
11/07
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