Posts Tagged ‘ Juan Martin Del Potro ’

Look For Nishikori to Defeat Tsonga Tomorrow

The blogging itch has returned so I have decided to keep a good thing going.  Despite a mediocre 3-2 record yesterday (though I did pick the upset of Fognini over Robredo), we’re going to try to do better with our picks today.

There are several top level matches tomorrow in Shanghai and I expect one fairly significant and one minor upset.  Let’s get to it:

Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Tommy Haas

Delpo holds the significant edge in this head-to-head match-up with a 5-0 record, with all five wins coming on hard courts.  Their most recent tilt during this year’s US Open Series in Washington was actually their closest match.  The ultimate result was a 7-6 6-3 win for Delpo but in Game Score it was a 99-99 tie.  This comes after a whitewashing in both line and game scores at Indian Wells earlier in the year.

I think Haas might keep it close, but JMDP has too much fire power.  I’ll take Del Potro in two competitive sets.

Gael Monfils vs. Roger Federer

Federer holds the overall match-up edge 6-1, but their last meeting on hard courts was Monfils’ only win – 7-6 6-7 7-6 in Paris in 2010.  While Monfils was able to win the clutch points during the tiebreakers, Federer actually got the better of the play with a 101-97 game score.

Of course, Federer has not displayed the same form that he did in 2010 (neither has Monfils mind you).  I think that Federer is well rested and primed to make a run in Shanghai.  Monfils will keep it close, but I think Federer wins in 3 sets.

UPSET OF THE DAY:

Japanese #1 Kei Nishikori will take on Frenchman Jo-Wilfrid Tsongo tomorrow in what should be an immensely entertaining match.  The oddsmen have installed Tsonga as the favorite though the series match-up is 2-0 for Nishikori.

Both previous meetings have come on hard courts with Nishikori prevailing in five tough sets in Australia in 2012 and in 3 competitive sets at this same Shanghai tournament back in 2011.  Particularly impressive for Nishikori was his ability to win 42% of return points in Australia leading to a fairly convincing 106-93 Game Score win.  (The 2011 Shanghai match produced a 99-99 Game Score tie).

I like Nishikori to continue playing good tennis, especially on his return of serve.  This match will be very close, but in my upset of the day, I’ll take Nishikori in 3 very tight sets.

Tomas Berdych vs. Nicolas Almagro

These two are very familiar with one another’s games as they have faced off an impressive 12 times.  Both have had blow-out victories against the other on hard courts, but Berdych has dominated the overall match-up 9-3.

Their last two tilts featured zero breaks for Almagro on Berdych’s serve – in fact, Berdych did not even face a break point in their 2012 Stockholm match-up.  Berdych dominated both of those matches and will likely do so again.

I’ll take Berdych in 2 easy sets.

MINOR UPSET SPECIAL:

Last, but not least, I was wrong about top Canadian Milos Raonic in today’s match-up against Verdasco, who he managed to defeat in a tight affair.  Tomorrow, the Missile takes on Stanislas Wawrinka, who he has only played once before.

In their previous match, Wawrinka converted his only break point of the contest, leading to a tough 3 set victory in Cincinnati.  Milos actually got the better of the play as is evidenced by his thin 101-98 Game Score victory.

I fear some fatigue from the big Canadian who has played a lot of tennis in the last few weeks, but this is a big match in terms of gaining entry into the World Tour Finals in London in November.

Maybe I’m a sentimentalist Canadian, but I’ll take Raonic in the mild upset, in 3 tight sets.

Other Picks:

Djokovic over Fognini in 2

Nadal over Berlocq in 2

Ferrer over Mayer in 2

 

2013
10/09
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Quick Tennis commentary – Del Potro’s withdrawal

The news of Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal from the BNP Paribas Master’s in Paris does not come as too much of a shock given his recent injury woes.

However, I don’t understand how the tournament orgainzers can give Igor Kunitsyn – who lost in qualifying – a bye into the 2nd round.  A much more palpable option would have been for Kunitsyn to play another lucky loser and add another match to this tournament and getting rid of Del Po’s bye altogether.

2011
11/07
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BNP Paribas Masters
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Tennis Preview – Saturday November 5

Upsets have ruled the day in both Valencia and Basel, as all of the semi-final matches in both tournaments feature seeded players against unseeded players.

Order will likely be restored in Basel, while I predict one major upset in Valencia.

BASEL SEMI-FINALS:

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. KEI NISHIKORI

Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori enters the semi-finals in fine form, having recorded an impressive first round win over Tomas Berdych before subsequently dispatching Andreas Seppi and Mikhail Kukushkin.  Nishikori is one of the top young players in tennis and he has shown off his all around game in Basel, playing impressively off the forehand wing and displaying an impressive net game.

Djokovic, on the other  hand, has been playing at a little bit of a lower level than his otherworldly standards.  He surprisingly lost sets to players outside the top 50 in Xavier Malisse and Marcos Baghdatis.  Nishikori will easily be Djokovic’s stiffest test to date as he has avoided playing a top 35 player to this point in the tournament.

Look for Nishikori to come out guns ablazing and keep this match competitive until Djokovic’s experience and slightly better all-around game  carry the day.  I especially like Djokovic to begin deciphering Nishikori’s service game and pull away in the third set in what promises to be a competitive thriller.

PREDICTION: Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-2

STANISLAS WAWRINKA VS. ROGER FEDERER

Swiss tennis fans will undoubtedly be excited to see their top two tennis players meet in the semi-finals of their home tournament in Basel.  Olympic doubles partners, world top 20 players and good friends Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka square off tomorrow in what should be an interesting match.

While Wawrinka has certainly played well in this tournament, he has benefited from his draw in this tournament.  Specifically, Andy Murray’s withdrawal led Wawrinka to meet talented youngster Robin Haase instead of the world #3 in the second round.  Wawrinka has had to defeat a top 30 player (Florian Mayer) a top 40 player (Ivan Dodig) and a top 50 player (Haase) to get to the semis and he looked especially impressive in knocking out a hot Florian in the last round.

Federer seems to be rounding into form at exactly the right time.  After a rough first few games against American Andy Roddick, Federer began dominating his quarterfinal match before cruising to an easy 3 and 2 victory.

Historically Federer has not had a problem with his countryman and there is no reason to think that anything will change this time around.  Federer is 9-1 lifetime against Wawrinka and has won 15 out of the last 16 sets against his mate.  While Federer is definitely the more complete player, Wawrinka often seems in awe at the player on the other end of the net when they meet and his form drops.

PREDICTION: Federer 6-4 6-2

VALENCIA SEMI-FINALS

DAVID FERRER VS. JUAN MONACO

Two familiar opponents face off in Valencia as defending champion and world #5 David Ferrer takes on veteran Argentine and world #41 Juan Monaco.

Historically, these two have played very tight matches with both players winning three times in their six career meetings.  Most recently, Ferrer prevailed over Monaco in Acapulco earlier this year, however, an examination of that match shows that it certainly could have gone the other way.  While Ferrer converted 5/7 breakpoints, Monaco only was able to convert four out of his astounding 14 break point chances.  If Monaco were able to take adavantage of his opportunities, he would have been the victor.

Monaco historically has been able to handle Ferrer’s less than stellar first serve.  In their three most recent match-ups, Ferrer has prevailed on 61%, 67% and 61% of first service points.  This is well below his average of 73% of first service points won.

I expect Monaco to continue to challenge Ferrer’s serve and to convert more of his break opportunities.

PREDICTION: MONACO 6-7 6-4 7-5

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO VS. MARCEL GRANOLLERS

Count me as someone who thought that Marcel Granollers was going to fall outside the top 50 this week, as I felt that there would be no way that he could defend the 300 points that he gained from making the Valencia finals last year.  Well, it looks like I may have been off, as he gone on yet another amazing run in his home country by making the semi-finals.  Along the way, he has pulled off upsets against Alexandr Dolgopolov, Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils.  Defeating the latter two was no small feat as both had been coming off tournament victories in their most recent events.

Granollers’ luck will probably run out against Juan Martin Del Potro who is likely motivated by the chance to make the ATP World Tour Finals with a victory in Valencia and a good showing at the Masters 1000 event in Paris next week.

Granollers game relies on precision and consistency and I believe that he will have trouble with Del Potro’s big weapons.  When Del Potro is on, like his is this week, the only way for Del Potro to lose to a player like Granollers is to defeat himself.  Del Potro has too much on the line to let that happen.

Look for Del Potro to attack Granollers all match and force his opponent to play some offense.  Del Potro should cruise through to the finals against a very hot opponent.

PREDICTION: Del Potro 6-3 6-2

 

2011
11/04
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Tennis Preview – Thursday November 3

While many seeded players have been bounced in the early going at both Valencia and Basel, there are still plenty of great match-ups as these tournaments progress.

BASELINE RALLY’S MATCH OF THE DAY:

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO VS. KEVIN ANDERSON

Tennis fans have had to wait a whole week to see a rematch between these two big hitting righties as Del Potro and Anderson square off in Valencia, Spain tomorrow morning.  World #14 Del Potro bested the 32nd ranked Anderson 6-4 3-6 6-4 in Vienna last week.   Del Potro also defeated Anderson 6-4 6-4 in the quarters of Delray Beach back in February.

Both of these men possess massive first serves with Anderson in the top ten on tour in aces and Del Potro in the top ten in winning percentage on first service points.  At this stage in his career, however, Del Potro possesses a more complete return game and should be able to take advantage and garner some break chances.  Additionally, while Anderson hits big, he does not have a weapon that is the equivalent of Del Potro’s missile of a forehand.  Also importantly, this match means the world to Del Potro as good results this week and next may punch his ticket to the ATP Tour Championships later this month.

Look for Del Potro to pick his spots and attack Anderson’s second serve.  That should be enough to carry the day

PREDICTION: Del Potro 7-5 6-4

OTHER MATCHES TO WATCH:

FLORIAN MAYER VS. IVAN LJUBICIC

In another exciting match, Germany’s Florian Mayer takes on Croatian national Ivan Ljubicic in Basel.  This is another rematch of a recent match as world #31 Ljubicic bested world #22  Mayer in Beijing in early October.  In that match, Mayer had a tremendous amount of trouble with Ljubicic’s first serve with the Croat winning 93% of first service points.

Look for more of the same in this match as Ljubicic has historically been able to get the better of the German by attacking and moving in off of his first serve.

PREDICTION: LJUBICIC 7-5 6-1

MARIN CILIC VS. MARCEL GRANOLLERS

The Valencia open features another great early round match-up of unseeded players as world #20 Marin Cilic faces 34th ranked Marcel Granollers.  This is a match-up of a big hitter in Cilic versus a finesse player in Granollers.  Granollers has enjoyed some success in this tournament in his home country, reaching the finals last year.

Cilic is 4-0 in his career against Granollers and his recipe for success has been to attack Granollers’ less than potent serve.  In their previous matches, Granollers has not been able to win more than 67% of first serve points on any occassion.  For him to have any chance of victory, he has to get that number over 75% and keep his first serve percentage over 70%.  Quite simply, Cilic is not an easy man to break.  Cilic has won over 70% of first service points in all his matches with Granollers and has been over 80% on two occassions.

Look for Cilic’s all around big game to continue to give the Spaniard fits.

PREDICTION: CILIC 6-3 6-3

UPSET OF THE DAY:

RADEK STEPANEK VS. ANDY RODDICK

In one of the marquee matches in Basel, American Andy Roddick squares off against Czech Radek Spanek.  These fellows are not used to playing each other in the early rounds of tournaments, as three of their last four meetings have come at tournament finals (with Roddick winning all three) and the other coming in the semis (where Stepanek prevailed).

Despite Roddick winning six of seven career matches against Stepanek, look for Stepanek to squeak out a victory this time around.  While the return of serve has never been Roddick’s strength, he has been particularly poor this season, and has not even managed to win over 50% of 2nd serve return points this year.

Stepanek’s strong all around game may force Roddick into some errors in this match.  If Roddick does not serve lights out, he may be bowing out early in this tournament.

PREDICTION: STEPANEK 6-7 6-4 7-5

2011
11/02
CATEGORY
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Tennis Preview – Wednesday November 2

With two 500 level tournaments being played simultaneously, tomorrow promises to be another exciting day of tennis action.  Two matches (one in Valencia and another in Basel) pit top 30 players squaring off in first round tilts.  Here’s a preview of tomorrow’s action:

BASELINE RALLY’S MATCH OF THE DAY:

JANKO TIPSAREVIC VS. FLORIAN MAYER

The Baseline Rally Match of the Day leads off tomorrow’s action in Basel at the Swiss Indoor Championships.  Two veterans having career years square off as world #13 and #6 seeded Serbian Janko Tipsarevic takes on the 22nd ranked player in the world, German Florian Mayer.

Tipsarevic enters Basel on a tremendous hot streak.  In the last two weeks, he reached the finals in St. Petersburg and also won the event in Moscow.  Tipsarevic’s recent run of success dates back to late summer when he won the event in Kuala Lumpur in late September after making a glorious run to the US Open quarterfinals.

Mayer is also playing well recently.  In his most recent event, he reached the quarterfinals at the Master’s 1000 event in Shanghai where he beat world #2 Rafael Nadal.   In September, 28 year-old Mayer won his first career title in Bucharest.

On paper, this looks like a fairly even match-up until you delve deeper into the numbers.  Tipsarevic has an other-worldly 17-4 record indoors this year and both of his recent titles were won indoors.  Conversely, Mayer is a mere 3-2 playing inside this season.

Tipsarevic’s all-around game translates well to playing without any outdoor elements.  He possesses a potent second serve and has a more than adequate return game.  Look for him to control tempo from both wings and pound Mayer into an early exit.

PREDICTION: Tipsarevic 7-5 6-3

OTHER MATCHES TO WATCH:

MARIN CILIC VS. MILOS RAONIC

In a battle of tall, big hitters, 20th ranked Marin Cilic takes on world #27 Milos Raonic at the Valencia Open in Spain.  If you like big serving and big forehands, this is your match.

Cilic enters this tournament in fine form after winning St Petersburg last week and losing in the finals in Beijing.  Of note, Cilic beat Kevin Anderson, whose game very much resembles Raonic’s, in the round of 16 in Beijing.

Raonic is just starting to regain his form after missing the summer hardcourt season after undergoing hip surgery due to an injury suffered at Wimbledon.  He recently lost in the semifinals of Stockholm to Gael Monfils, in a match that he should have won but did not close.  Raonic may have the biggest serve in tennis and he will look to impose his will on his service games.

Raonic, however, may have some problems solving Cilic.  For one, Raonic’s return game is still a work in progress and it is hard to imagine that he will have many opportunities to break Cilic.  Additionally, Raonic has not beaten a top 25 player since April, when he took out Gilles Simon in Estoril.  Last, while Raonic has an impressive 19-9 record on hard courts, his record on outdoor hardcourts is barely over .500 at 8-7.

Conversely, Cilic is an impressive 28-12 on hard courts and has had a recent run of great success on this surface.  If fatigue is not a factor, Cilic will likely win in two hard fought sets.

PREDICTION: Cilic 7-6 7-5

JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO VS. DMITRY TURSUNOV

6th seeded Juan Martin Del Potro is having a resurgent season, seeing his ranking rise all the way back up to #14 in the world after suffering from injury last year.   He faces off against world #39, veteran Dmitry Tursunov in a first round match in Valencia.

Del Potro is coming off of a good result making the finals in Vienna last week where he lost a hard fought match to Frenchman Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga.  Del Potro did suffer a surprising early round exit the previous week in Stockholm losing to James Blake.

Tursunov is playing middling tennis recently, having not made a semi-final since winning the tournament in Hertogenbosch on grass prior to Wimbledon.  His best most recent result is a quarterfinal loss in Moscow early this month.

Tursunov does not have the return game or the general weapons to compete with a talent like Del Potro.  Unless the Argentine becomes careless with a slew of unforced errors, Tursunov will likely not challenge in this match.  Look for Del Potro’s potent first and second serves, as well as his forehand, which is top five in tennis to carry the day.

PREDICTION: Del Potro 6-3 6-4

UPSET OF THE DAY

ALEX BOGOMOLV, JR. VS. FELICIANO LOPEZ

American (and soon to be Russian) Alex Bogomolov, Jr. takes on local Spaniard Feliciano Lopez at the Valencia open tomorrow.  28 year-old Bogomolov is having a shocking season, coming out of nowhere to attain his current career high ranking of 33rd in the world.  Lopez is also having a resurgent season at 30 years old with a ranking of #21 in the world – one spot off the best ranking of his fourteen year career.

Bogomolov is coming off some pretty good results with a semi-final appearance in St. Petersburg and a quarter-final in Moscow where he lost to Victor Troicki in a marathon three setter that went to three tiebreaks.  Lopez recently reached the semi-finals at the 1000 event in Shanghai.  This match is a rematch of Shanghai where Lopez defeated Bogomolov  in three hard fought sets.

Everything about this match-up suggests that Lopez will win.  Contrary to other Spanish players who are more comfortable on the clay courts, Lopez is a big hitter with a booming serve.  He usually struggles with other big servers, but Bogomolov certainly does not fit that bill.   Bogomolov is a consistent player but has no real great weapons.

That having been said, combine the pressure of the hometown environment with a confident opponent, and I believe Lopez will suffer a mild upset at the hands of Bogomolov in a war of attrition.

PREDICTION: Bogomolov 2-6 7-6 7-6

2011
11/01
CATEGORY
ATP
Swiss Indoors
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